✓ Verified · scored liveevery pick is logged before kickoff
81%
outcome accuracy · over 21 matches
10%exact score
8/21beat the bookmakers
100%high-confidence hits (3)
| Fixture | Predicted | Actual | P(actual) | Outcome | Exact | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Spainv Argentina | 1-1 | 1-0 | 36% | ✓ | – | |
 Francev England | 1-1 | 4-6 | 34% | ✗ | – | |
| EnglandvArgentina | 0-0 | 1-2 | 39% | ✓ | – | |
| FrancevSpain | 1-1 | 0-2 | 40% | ✓ | – | |
Argentinav Switzerland | 1-0 | 3-1 | 55% | ✓ | – | |
 NorwayvEngland | 0-1 | 1-2 | 57% | ✓ | – | |
Spainv Belgium | 1-1 | 2-1 | 54% | ✓ | – | |
Francev Morocco | 1-0 | 2-0 | 48% | ✓ | – | |
Switzerlandv Colombia | 0-1 | 4-3 | 24% | ✗ | – | |
Argentinav Egypt | 1-0 | 3-2 | 68% | ✓ | – | |
 United StatesvBelgium | 0-1 | 1-4 | 57% | ✓ | – | |
 PortugalvSpain | 0-1 | 0-1 | 48% | ✓ | ✓ | |
 MexicovEngland | 0-1 | 2-3 | 53% | ✓ | – | |
 BrazilvNorway | 2-0 | 1-2 | 12% | ✗ | – | |
 ParaguayvFrance | 0-1 | 0-1 | 55% | ✓ | ✓ | |
 CanadavMorocco | 0-0 | 0-3 | 36% | ✓ | – | |
Colombiav Ghana | 2-0 | 1-0 | 71% | ✓ | – | |
Argentinav Cape Verde Islands | 2-0 | 3-2 | 80% | ✓ | – | |
 AustraliavEgypt | 0-0 | 3-5 | 24% | ✗ | – | |
Switzerlandv Algeria | 1-1 | 2-0 | 49% | ✓ | – | |
Portugalv Croatia | 1-0 | 2-1 | 56% | ✓ | – |
Calibration
When we say something has a given chance, does it happen that often? Points on the dashed line are perfectly calibrated; dot size = sample.
Model–market blend fit over 21 fixtures with odds: optimal model share 21%, blended RPS 0.1858 (model alone 0.1931).