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Colombia
vs
Ghana
Round of 32 · 7/4/2026, 1:30:00 AM
2-0
alt 1-0 · xG 2.00–0.56
6conf
Score-probability matrix
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
8
1
15
9
2
15
9
3
10
6
4
5
5
6
↓ Colombia goalsGhana goals →
Win / draw / loss
W 71%D 20%L 9%
Market
66% / 22% / 11%

Colombia favoured (71% to win); the model's most likely scoreline is 2-0.

Confidence 6/10. Even the favoured outcome (71%) fails about 29% of the time; a single match is high variance.

How we got to 2-0
  1. 1
    Model fit
    Team strengths fit from 15,899 matches (Dixon-Coles, recency-weighted, low-score correction ρ=-0.068). Neutral venue — no home advantage.
  2. 2
    Team strengths (log scale, vs average)
    Colombia: attack +1.00, defence +1.04
    Ghana: attack +0.29, defence +0.49
    Higher attack = scores more; higher defence = concedes fewer.
  3. 3
    Expected goals
    Colombia: exp(base +0.18 + att +1.00 − opp.def +0.49) = 2.00
    Ghana: exp(base +0.18 + att +0.29 − opp.def +1.04) = 0.56
    “base” is the league scoring level the model fitted.
  4. 4
    Agent adjustments
    None — baseline quant model (no agent layer applied).
  5. 5
    Scoreline
    A Poisson model on those expected goals (with ρ) gives the score-probability matrix above; its most likely cell is 2-0 at 15%. Win / draw / loss come from summing the matrix.
  6. 6
    Confidence
    6/10 — a sharper peak and a clearer favourite raise it; large agent moves lower it (model agreement 100%).
Colombia vs Ghana — predicted 2-0 · Lambda XI