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Switzerland
vs
Algeria
Round of 32 · 7/3/2026, 3:00:00 AM
1-1
alt 2-1 · xG 1.69–1.17
5conf
Score-probability matrix
0
1
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4
5
6
0
6
6
1
9
12
7
2
8
10
6
3
5
4
5
6
↓ Switzerland goalsAlgeria goals →
Win / draw / loss
W 49%D 26%L 26%
Market
48% / 29% / 22%value +11% on away

Switzerland favoured (49% to win); the model's most likely scoreline is 1-1.

Confidence 5/10. Even the favoured outcome (49%) fails about 51% of the time; a single match is high variance.

How we got to 1-1
  1. 1
    Model fit
    Team strengths fit from 15,899 matches (Dixon-Coles, recency-weighted, low-score correction ρ=-0.068). Neutral venue — no home advantage.
  2. 2
    Team strengths (log scale, vs average)
    Switzerland: attack +0.62, defence +0.62
    Algeria: attack +0.71, defence +0.48
    Higher attack = scores more; higher defence = concedes fewer.
  3. 3
    Expected goals
    Switzerland: exp(base +0.18 + att +0.62 − opp.def +0.48) = 1.38
    Algeria: exp(base +0.18 + att +0.71 − opp.def +0.62) = 1.31
    “base” is the league scoring level the model fitted.
  4. 4
    Agent adjustments
    λ 1.38/1.31 → 1.69/1.17
    • Tactical home attack ×1.05 — Switzerland's compact, disciplined block and solid recent defensive form (1.0 conceded) suggest a tighter structure than baseline, while their momentum from WWD sharpens the attack slightly. Algeria's leaky recent defence (2.3 conceded per game) points to structural vulnerabilities on transitions that the baseline underweights, so their defence is nudged down; their attack stays neutral with no availability or tactical edge visible. Full squads on both sides keep other factors near 1.0.
    • Tactical home defence ×1.08 — Switzerland's compact, disciplined block and solid recent defensive form (1.0 conceded) suggest a tighter structure than baseline, while their momentum from WWD sharpens the attack slightly. Algeria's leaky recent defence (2.3 conceded per game) points to structural vulnerabilities on transitions that the baseline underweights, so their defence is nudged down; their attack stays neutral with no availability or tactical edge visible. Full squads on both sides keep other factors near 1.0.
    • Tactical away defence ×0.9 — Switzerland's compact, disciplined block and solid recent defensive form (1.0 conceded) suggest a tighter structure than baseline, while their momentum from WWD sharpens the attack slightly. Algeria's leaky recent defence (2.3 conceded per game) points to structural vulnerabilities on transitions that the baseline underweights, so their defence is nudged down; their attack stays neutral with no availability or tactical edge visible. Full squads on both sides keep other factors near 1.0.
    • Context home defence ×1.03 — Both sides at full availability on a neutral venue, so baseline strengths largely stand. Switzerland's solid recent defensive form beyond the raw numbers earns a small defensive edge, while Algeria's leaky recent showings (2.3 conceded/game) suggest slightly softer defensive organization not fully captured by the baseline. Attacks left neutral absent tactical or lineup signals.
    • Context away defence ×0.95 — Both sides at full availability on a neutral venue, so baseline strengths largely stand. Switzerland's solid recent defensive form beyond the raw numbers earns a small defensive edge, while Algeria's leaky recent showings (2.3 conceded/game) suggest slightly softer defensive organization not fully captured by the baseline. Attacks left neutral absent tactical or lineup signals.
  5. 5
    Scoreline
    A Poisson model on those expected goals (with ρ) gives the score-probability matrix above; its most likely cell is 1-1 at 12%. Win / draw / loss come from summing the matrix.
  6. 6
    Confidence
    5/10 — a sharper peak and a clearer favourite raise it; large agent moves lower it (model agreement 70%).