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Australia
vs
Egypt
Round of 32 · 7/3/2026, 6:00:00 PM
0-0
alt 1-0 · xG 1.02–0.71
4conf
actual 3-5 ✗ missed
Score-probability matrix
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
19
12
1
17
14
2
9
7
3
4
5
6
↓ Australia goalsEgypt goals →
Win / draw / loss
W 41%D 35%L 24%
Market
27% / 33% / 40%

Australia favoured (41% to win); the model's most likely scoreline is 0-0.

Confidence 4/10. Even the favoured outcome (41%) fails about 59% of the time; a single match is high variance. This one is close; treat the scoreline as indicative only.

How we got to 0-0
  1. 1
    Model fit
    Team strengths fit from 15,899 matches (Dixon-Coles, recency-weighted, low-score correction ρ=-0.068). Neutral venue — no home advantage.
  2. 2
    Team strengths (log scale, vs average)
    Australia: attack +0.71, defence +1.00
    Egypt: attack +0.35, defence +0.72
    Higher attack = scores more; higher defence = concedes fewer.
  3. 3
    Expected goals
    Australia: exp(base +0.18 + att +0.71 − opp.def +0.72) = 1.19
    Egypt: exp(base +0.18 + att +0.35 − opp.def +1.00) = 0.63
    “base” is the league scoring level the model fitted.
  4. 4
    Agent adjustments
    λ 1.19/0.63 → 1.02/0.71
    • Tactical home attack ×0.9 — Australia's recent scoring has dried up (0.7 per game) suggesting their attack baseline may be slightly overstated, while Egypt arrive in sharper attacking form (1.7 per game) with solid defensive returns; nudging Egypt's attack and defence up modestly and Australia's attack down, with no availability issues to otherwise adjust for.
    • Tactical away attack ×1.1 — Australia's recent scoring has dried up (0.7 per game) suggesting their attack baseline may be slightly overstated, while Egypt arrive in sharper attacking form (1.7 per game) with solid defensive returns; nudging Egypt's attack and defence up modestly and Australia's attack down, with no availability issues to otherwise adjust for.
    • Tactical away defence ×1.05 — Australia's recent scoring has dried up (0.7 per game) suggesting their attack baseline may be slightly overstated, while Egypt arrive in sharper attacking form (1.7 per game) with solid defensive returns; nudging Egypt's attack and defence up modestly and Australia's attack down, with no availability issues to otherwise adjust for.
    • Context away attack ×1.03 — No availability or clear stakes information distinguishes either side, so factors stay near baseline. Egypt's stronger recent scoring form (1.7 per game vs Australia's 0.7) is largely captured by the model already, but a marginal attack nudge reflects their sharper attacking rhythm not fully priced in; defences and Australia's factors remain neutral at a neutral venue.
  5. 5
    Scoreline
    A Poisson model on those expected goals (with ρ) gives the score-probability matrix above; its most likely cell is 0-0 at 19%. Win / draw / loss come from summing the matrix.
  6. 6
    Confidence
    4/10 — a sharper peak and a clearer favourite raise it; large agent moves lower it (model agreement 73%).
Australia vs Egypt — predicted 0-0 · Lambda XI