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Australia
vs
Egypt
Round of 32 · 7/3/2026, 6:00:00 PM
1-0
alt 0-0 · xG 1.13–0.71
4conf
Score-probability matrix
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
17
10
1
17
14
2
10
7
3
4
5
6
↓ Australia goalsEgypt goals →
Win / draw / loss
W 45%D 33%L 22%
Market
28% / 33% / 38%value +51% on home

Australia favoured (45% to win); the model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.

Confidence 4/10. Even the favoured outcome (45%) fails about 55% of the time; a single match is high variance. This one is close; treat the scoreline as indicative only.

How we got to 1-0
  1. 1
    Model fit
    Team strengths fit from 15,899 matches (Dixon-Coles, recency-weighted, low-score correction ρ=-0.068). Neutral venue — no home advantage.
  2. 2
    Team strengths (log scale, vs average)
    Australia: attack +0.71, defence +1.00
    Egypt: attack +0.35, defence +0.72
    Higher attack = scores more; higher defence = concedes fewer.
  3. 3
    Expected goals
    Australia: exp(base +0.18 + att +0.71 − opp.def +0.72) = 1.19
    Egypt: exp(base +0.18 + att +0.35 − opp.def +1.00) = 0.63
    “base” is the league scoring level the model fitted.
  4. 4
    Agent adjustments
    λ 1.19/0.63 → 1.13/0.71
    • Tactical home attack ×0.95 — Australia's recent form shows a struggling attack (0.7 scored per game) that the baseline may overweight favorably, so a slight attack trim; Egypt arrive in sharper attacking form (1.7 scored per game) suggesting some added edge going forward. Neutral venue and full availability on both sides mean defensive factors stay neutral, with only modest tactical/form nudges beyond the baseline.
    • Tactical away attack ×1.1 — Australia's recent form shows a struggling attack (0.7 scored per game) that the baseline may overweight favorably, so a slight attack trim; Egypt arrive in sharper attacking form (1.7 scored per game) suggesting some added edge going forward. Neutral venue and full availability on both sides mean defensive factors stay neutral, with only modest tactical/form nudges beyond the baseline.
    • Context away attack ×1.03 — No availability issues or clear stakes/tactical information beyond what the baseline captures; only a marginal nudge to Egypt's attack reflecting their stronger recent scoring output that a neutral-venue baseline may slightly underweight. Otherwise all factors held at 1.0.
  5. 5
    Scoreline
    A Poisson model on those expected goals (with ρ) gives the score-probability matrix above; its most likely cell is 1-0 at 17%. Win / draw / loss come from summing the matrix.
  6. 6
    Confidence
    4/10 — a sharper peak and a clearer favourite raise it; large agent moves lower it (model agreement 83%).
Australia vs Egypt — predicted 1-0 · Lambda XI