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Argentina
vs
Cape Verde Islands
Round of 32 · 7/3/2026, 10:00:00 PM
2-0
alt 1-0 · xG 2.27–0.39
7conf
actual 3-2 ✓ correct
Score-probability matrix
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
7
1
16
7
2
18
7
3
14
5
4
8
5
6
↓ Argentina goalsCape Verde Islands goals →
Win / draw / loss
W 80%D 16%L 4%
Market
84% / 12% / 4%

Argentina favoured (80% to win); the model's most likely scoreline is 2-0.

Confidence 7/10. Even the favoured outcome (80%) fails about 20% of the time; a single match is high variance.

How we got to 2-0
  1. 1
    Model fit
    Team strengths fit from 15,899 matches (Dixon-Coles, recency-weighted, low-score correction ρ=-0.068). Neutral venue — no home advantage.
  2. 2
    Team strengths (log scale, vs average)
    Argentina: attack +1.08, defence +1.31
    Cape Verde Islands: attack +0.17, defence +0.43
    Higher attack = scores more; higher defence = concedes fewer.
  3. 3
    Expected goals
    Argentina: exp(base +0.18 + att +1.08 − opp.def +0.43) = 2.31
    Cape Verde Islands: exp(base +0.18 + att +0.17 − opp.def +1.31) = 0.39
    “base” is the league scoring level the model fitted.
  4. 4
    Agent adjustments
    λ 2.31/0.39 → 2.27/0.39
    • Context away defence ×1.02 — No availability issues or clear stakes/tactical signals beyond what the baseline already captures. Cape Verde's draw-heavy recent run hints at a defensively cautious, compact setup, so a marginal tightening of their defence is the only justified deviation; all other factors held at neutral.
  5. 5
    Scoreline
    A Poisson model on those expected goals (with ρ) gives the score-probability matrix above; its most likely cell is 2-0 at 18%. Win / draw / loss come from summing the matrix.
  6. 6
    Confidence
    7/10 — a sharper peak and a clearer favourite raise it; large agent moves lower it (model agreement 98%).
Argentina vs Cape Verde Islands — predicted 2-0 · Lambda XI