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Argentina
vs
Cape Verde Islands
Round of 32 · 7/3/2026, 10:00:00 PM
2-0
alt 1-0 · xG 2.10–0.39
6conf
Score-probability matrix
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
9
1
17
7
2
18
7
3
13
5
4
7
5
6
↓ Argentina goalsCape Verde Islands goals →
Win / draw / loss
W 77%D 18%L 5%
Market
83% / 12% / 5%

Argentina favoured (77% to win); the model's most likely scoreline is 2-0.

Confidence 6/10. Even the favoured outcome (77%) fails about 23% of the time; a single match is high variance.

How we got to 2-0
  1. 1
    Model fit
    Team strengths fit from 15,899 matches (Dixon-Coles, recency-weighted, low-score correction ρ=-0.068). Neutral venue — no home advantage.
  2. 2
    Team strengths (log scale, vs average)
    Argentina: attack +1.08, defence +1.31
    Cape Verde Islands: attack +0.17, defence +0.43
    Higher attack = scores more; higher defence = concedes fewer.
  3. 3
    Expected goals
    Argentina: exp(base +0.18 + att +1.08 − opp.def +0.43) = 2.31
    Cape Verde Islands: exp(base +0.18 + att +0.17 − opp.def +1.31) = 0.39
    “base” is the league scoring level the model fitted.
  4. 4
    Agent adjustments
    λ 2.31/0.39 → 2.10/0.39
    • Tactical away attack ×1.02 — No availability news on either side, so factors stay near neutral. Cape Verde's consistent draws suggest a disciplined, compact defensive setup that could travel to a neutral venue, warranting a slight tightening of their defence and marginal attacking threat on the break; Argentina's baseline already captures their dominant form.
    • Tactical away defence ×1.08 — No availability news on either side, so factors stay near neutral. Cape Verde's consistent draws suggest a disciplined, compact defensive setup that could travel to a neutral venue, warranting a slight tightening of their defence and marginal attacking threat on the break; Argentina's baseline already captures their dominant form.
    • Context away defence ×1.02 — No availability or stakes information beyond what the baseline captures; both sides at full strength. Cape Verde's consistent draws suggest a disciplined, defensively organized approach, warranting a marginal defensive tightening, otherwise factors held near neutral.
  5. 5
    Scoreline
    A Poisson model on those expected goals (with ρ) gives the score-probability matrix above; its most likely cell is 2-0 at 18%. Win / draw / loss come from summing the matrix.
  6. 6
    Confidence
    6/10 — a sharper peak and a clearer favourite raise it; large agent moves lower it (model agreement 89%).
Argentina vs Cape Verde Islands — predicted 2-0 · Lambda XI