SpainArgentina
Final · 7/19/2026, 7:00:00 PM
1-1
alt 0-0 · xG 1.05–0.98
4conf
actual 1-0 ✓ correct
Score-probability matrix
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
14
12
6
1
13
14
7
2
7
7
3
4
5
6
↓ Spain goalsArgentina goals →
Win / draw / loss
W 36%D 32%L 32%
Market
42% / 32% / 27%
Spain favoured (36% to win); the model's most likely scoreline is 1-1.
Confidence 4/10. Even the favoured outcome (36%) fails about 64% of the time; a single match is high variance. This one is close; treat the scoreline as indicative only.
How we got to 1-1
- 1Model fitTeam strengths fit from 15,899 matches (Dixon-Coles, recency-weighted, low-score correction ρ=-0.044). Neutral venue — no home advantage.
- 2Team strengths (log scale, vs average)Spain: attack +1.63, defence +1.62Argentina: attack +1.48, defence +1.80Higher attack = scores more; higher defence = concedes fewer.
- 3Expected goalsSpain: exp(base +0.15 + att +1.63 − opp.def +1.80) = 0.98Argentina: exp(base +0.15 + att +1.48 − opp.def +1.62) = 1.01“base” is the league scoring level the model fitted.
- 4Agent adjustmentsλ 0.98/1.01 → 1.05/0.98
- Tactical home defence ×1.08 — Both squads fully available, so factors stay near baseline. Spain's defensive record (0.2 conceded) reflects a compact, low-block discipline the model may underweight, nudging their defence tighter. Argentina's high-scoring but leaky form suggests an aggressive, transition-heavy approach that sharpens their attack slightly while leaving their defence marginally more exposed on a neutral stage.
- Tactical away attack ×1.05 — Both squads fully available, so factors stay near baseline. Spain's defensive record (0.2 conceded) reflects a compact, low-block discipline the model may underweight, nudging their defence tighter. Argentina's high-scoring but leaky form suggests an aggressive, transition-heavy approach that sharpens their attack slightly while leaving their defence marginally more exposed on a neutral stage.
- Tactical away defence ×0.95 — Both squads fully available, so factors stay near baseline. Spain's defensive record (0.2 conceded) reflects a compact, low-block discipline the model may underweight, nudging their defence tighter. Argentina's high-scoring but leaky form suggests an aggressive, transition-heavy approach that sharpens their attack slightly while leaving their defence marginally more exposed on a neutral stage.
- Context home defence ×1.02 — Both sides in strong form with full squads, so factors stay near baseline. Slight edge to Spain's defensive solidity (0.2 conceded per game) and Argentina's attacking sharpness (2.8 scored), with a marginal loosening of Argentina's defence given their higher goals conceded — all within cautious bounds since the baseline already captures long-run strength.
- Context away attack ×1.02 — Both sides in strong form with full squads, so factors stay near baseline. Slight edge to Spain's defensive solidity (0.2 conceded per game) and Argentina's attacking sharpness (2.8 scored), with a marginal loosening of Argentina's defence given their higher goals conceded — all within cautious bounds since the baseline already captures long-run strength.
- Context away defence ×0.98 — Both sides in strong form with full squads, so factors stay near baseline. Slight edge to Spain's defensive solidity (0.2 conceded per game) and Argentina's attacking sharpness (2.8 scored), with a marginal loosening of Argentina's defence given their higher goals conceded — all within cautious bounds since the baseline already captures long-run strength.
- 5ScorelineA Poisson model on those expected goals (with ρ) gives the score-probability matrix above; its most likely cell is 1-1 at 14%. Win / draw / loss come from summing the matrix.
- 6Confidence4/10 — a sharper peak and a clearer favourite raise it; large agent moves lower it (model agreement 77%).