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England
vs
Argentina
Semi-finals · 7/15/2026, 7:00:00 PM
0-0
alt 0-1 · xG 0.80–1.00
4conf
actual 1-2 ✓ correct
Score-probability matrix
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
17
16
8
1
13
14
7
2
5
5
3
4
5
6
↓ England goalsArgentina goals →
Win / draw / loss
W 28%D 34%L 39%
Market
35% / 33% / 32%

Argentina favoured (39% to win); the model's most likely scoreline is 0-0.

Confidence 4/10. Even the favoured outcome (39%) fails about 61% of the time; a single match is high variance. This one is close; treat the scoreline as indicative only.

How we got to 0-0
  1. 1
    Model fit
    Team strengths fit from 15,899 matches (Dixon-Coles, recency-weighted, low-score correction ρ=-0.044). Neutral venue — no home advantage.
  2. 2
    Team strengths (log scale, vs average)
    England: attack +1.43, defence +1.63
    Argentina: attack +1.48, defence +1.80
    Higher attack = scores more; higher defence = concedes fewer.
  3. 3
    Expected goals
    England: exp(base +0.15 + att +1.43 − opp.def +1.80) = 0.80
    Argentina: exp(base +0.15 + att +1.48 − opp.def +1.63) = 1.00
    “base” is the league scoring level the model fitted.
  4. 4
    Agent adjustments
    The Tactical and Context analysts reviewed this fixture and left the baseline unchanged — no signal beyond what the model already prices in.
  5. 5
    Scoreline
    A Poisson model on those expected goals (with ρ) gives the score-probability matrix above; its most likely cell is 0-0 at 17%. Win / draw / loss come from summing the matrix.
  6. 6
    Confidence
    4/10 — a sharper peak and a clearer favourite raise it; large agent moves lower it (model agreement 100%).
England vs Argentina — predicted 0-0 · Lambda XI