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France
vs
Spain
Semi-finals · 7/14/2026, 7:00:00 PM
1-1
alt 0-1 · xG 1.03–1.23
4conf
actual 0-2 ✓ correct
Score-probability matrix
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
11
12
8
1
10
14
8
2
6
7
3
4
5
6
↓ France goalsSpain goals →
Win / draw / loss
W 30%D 30%L 40%
Market
40% / 30% / 30%

Spain favoured (40% to win); the model's most likely scoreline is 1-1.

Confidence 4/10. Even the favoured outcome (40%) fails about 60% of the time; a single match is high variance. This one is close; treat the scoreline as indicative only.

How we got to 1-1
  1. 1
    Model fit
    Team strengths fit from 15,899 matches (Dixon-Coles, recency-weighted, low-score correction ρ=-0.044). Neutral venue — no home advantage.
  2. 2
    Team strengths (log scale, vs average)
    France: attack +1.50, defence +1.52
    Spain: attack +1.63, defence +1.62
    Higher attack = scores more; higher defence = concedes fewer.
  3. 3
    Expected goals
    France: exp(base +0.15 + att +1.50 − opp.def +1.62) = 1.03
    Spain: exp(base +0.15 + att +1.63 − opp.def +1.52) = 1.29
    “base” is the league scoring level the model fitted.
  4. 4
    Agent adjustments
    λ 1.03/1.29 → 1.03/1.23
    • Tactical home attack ×1.05 — Both sides arrive on identical five-game winning runs with elite defensive records (0.2 conceded/game), suggesting form and organization slightly beyond baseline. France's stronger scoring output and defensive solidity earn a marginally tighter defence bump, while Spain's ball-control style modestly sharpens both units. No availability issues, so adjustments stay small and near-symmetric.
    • Tactical home defence ×1.1 — Both sides arrive on identical five-game winning runs with elite defensive records (0.2 conceded/game), suggesting form and organization slightly beyond baseline. France's stronger scoring output and defensive solidity earn a marginally tighter defence bump, while Spain's ball-control style modestly sharpens both units. No availability issues, so adjustments stay small and near-symmetric.
    • Tactical away attack ×1.05 — Both sides arrive on identical five-game winning runs with elite defensive records (0.2 conceded/game), suggesting form and organization slightly beyond baseline. France's stronger scoring output and defensive solidity earn a marginally tighter defence bump, while Spain's ball-control style modestly sharpens both units. No availability issues, so adjustments stay small and near-symmetric.
    • Tactical away defence ×1.05 — Both sides arrive on identical five-game winning runs with elite defensive records (0.2 conceded/game), suggesting form and organization slightly beyond baseline. France's stronger scoring output and defensive solidity earn a marginally tighter defence bump, while Spain's ball-control style modestly sharpens both units. No availability issues, so adjustments stay small and near-symmetric.
  5. 5
    Scoreline
    A Poisson model on those expected goals (with ρ) gives the score-probability matrix above; its most likely cell is 1-1 at 14%. Win / draw / loss come from summing the matrix.
  6. 6
    Confidence
    4/10 — a sharper peak and a clearer favourite raise it; large agent moves lower it (model agreement 77%).
France vs Spain — predicted 1-1 · Lambda XI