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Argentina
vs
Switzerland
Quarter-finals · 7/12/2026, 1:00:00 AM
1-0
alt 1-1 · xG 1.49–0.73
5conf
actual 3-1 ✓ correct
Score-probability matrix
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
11
7
1
16
12
2
12
9
3
6
4
5
6
↓ Argentina goalsSwitzerland goals →
Win / draw / loss
W 55%D 27%L 18%
Market
57% / 27% / 17%

Argentina favoured (55% to win); the model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.

Confidence 5/10. Even the favoured outcome (55%) fails about 45% of the time; a single match is high variance.

How we got to 1-0
  1. 1
    Model fit
    Team strengths fit from 15,899 matches (Dixon-Coles, recency-weighted, low-score correction ρ=-0.044). Neutral venue — no home advantage.
  2. 2
    Team strengths (log scale, vs average)
    Argentina: attack +1.48, defence +1.80
    Switzerland: attack +1.28, defence +1.20
    Higher attack = scores more; higher defence = concedes fewer.
  3. 3
    Expected goals
    Argentina: exp(base +0.15 + att +1.48 − opp.def +1.20) = 1.54
    Switzerland: exp(base +0.15 + att +1.28 − opp.def +1.80) = 0.69
    “base” is the league scoring level the model fitted.
  4. 4
    Agent adjustments
    λ 1.54/0.69 → 1.49/0.73
    • Tactical away attack ×1.05 — No availability or stakes information beyond what the baseline captures; both sides in strong form. Slight nudge to Switzerland's attack and defence reflects their compact, well-organised tactical setup that tends to overperform their xG baseline against possession-dominant opponents at neutral venues, while Argentina's factors stay neutral.
    • Tactical away defence ×1.03 — No availability or stakes information beyond what the baseline captures; both sides in strong form. Slight nudge to Switzerland's attack and defence reflects their compact, well-organised tactical setup that tends to overperform their xG baseline against possession-dominant opponents at neutral venues, while Argentina's factors stay neutral.
  5. 5
    Scoreline
    A Poisson model on those expected goals (with ρ) gives the score-probability matrix above; its most likely cell is 1-0 at 16%. Win / draw / loss come from summing the matrix.
  6. 6
    Confidence
    5/10 — a sharper peak and a clearer favourite raise it; large agent moves lower it (model agreement 93%).
Argentina vs Switzerland — predicted 1-0 · Lambda XI