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Norway
vs
England
Quarter-finals · 7/11/2026, 9:00:00 PM
0-1
alt 1-1 · xG 0.85–1.72
5conf
actual 1-2 ✓ correct
Score-probability matrix
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
8
13
11
6
1
6
12
10
5
2
3
4
5
6
↓ Norway goalsEngland goals →
Win / draw / loss
W 18%D 25%L 57%
Market
25% / 26% / 50%

England favoured (57% to win); the model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.

Confidence 5/10. Even the favoured outcome (57%) fails about 43% of the time; a single match is high variance.

How we got to 0-1
  1. 1
    Model fit
    Team strengths fit from 15,899 matches (Dixon-Coles, recency-weighted, low-score correction ρ=-0.044). Neutral venue — no home advantage.
  2. 2
    Team strengths (log scale, vs average)
    Norway: attack +1.31, defence +1.03
    England: attack +1.43, defence +1.62
    Higher attack = scores more; higher defence = concedes fewer.
  3. 3
    Expected goals
    Norway: exp(base +0.15 + att +1.31 − opp.def +1.62) = 0.85
    England: exp(base +0.15 + att +1.43 − opp.def +1.03) = 1.72
    “base” is the league scoring level the model fitted.
  4. 4
    Agent adjustments
    The Tactical and Context analysts reviewed this fixture and left the baseline unchanged — no signal beyond what the model already prices in.
  5. 5
    Scoreline
    A Poisson model on those expected goals (with ρ) gives the score-probability matrix above; its most likely cell is 0-1 at 13%. Win / draw / loss come from summing the matrix.
  6. 6
    Confidence
    5/10 — a sharper peak and a clearer favourite raise it; large agent moves lower it (model agreement 100%).
Norway vs England — predicted 0-1 · Lambda XI