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Spain
vs
Belgium
Quarter-finals · 7/10/2026, 7:00:00 PM
1-1
alt 1-0 · xG 1.70–0.99
5conf
actual 2-1 ✓ correct
Score-probability matrix
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
7
6
1
11
12
6
2
10
10
3
6
5
4
5
6
↓ Spain goalsBelgium goals →
Win / draw / loss
W 54%D 25%L 21%
Market
58% / 24% / 17%

Spain favoured (54% to win); the model's most likely scoreline is 1-1.

Confidence 5/10. Even the favoured outcome (54%) fails about 46% of the time; a single match is high variance.

How we got to 1-1
  1. 1
    Model fit
    Team strengths fit from 15,899 matches (Dixon-Coles, recency-weighted, low-score correction ρ=-0.045). Neutral venue — no home advantage.
  2. 2
    Team strengths (log scale, vs average)
    Spain: attack +1.63, defence +1.62
    Belgium: attack +1.46, defence +1.30
    Higher attack = scores more; higher defence = concedes fewer.
  3. 3
    Expected goals
    Spain: exp(base +0.15 + att +1.63 − opp.def +1.30) = 1.61
    Belgium: exp(base +0.15 + att +1.46 − opp.def +1.62) = 0.99
    “base” is the league scoring level the model fitted.
  4. 4
    Agent adjustments
    λ 1.61/0.99 → 1.70/0.99
    • Tactical home defence ×1.05 — Baseline already captures form and strength, and both sides are at full availability, so adjustments are minimal. Spain's recent defensive solidity (clean sheets throughout) suggests slightly tighter organization at a neutral venue, warranting a small defensive nudge. Belgium's high-scoring, front-foot approach implies sharper attacking output but leaves more space behind, so their defence is nudged slightly looser to reflect a stylistic open-game matchup rather than any predicted result.
    • Tactical away attack ×1.05 — Baseline already captures form and strength, and both sides are at full availability, so adjustments are minimal. Spain's recent defensive solidity (clean sheets throughout) suggests slightly tighter organization at a neutral venue, warranting a small defensive nudge. Belgium's high-scoring, front-foot approach implies sharper attacking output but leaves more space behind, so their defence is nudged slightly looser to reflect a stylistic open-game matchup rather than any predicted result.
    • Tactical away defence ×0.95 — Baseline already captures form and strength, and both sides are at full availability, so adjustments are minimal. Spain's recent defensive solidity (clean sheets throughout) suggests slightly tighter organization at a neutral venue, warranting a small defensive nudge. Belgium's high-scoring, front-foot approach implies sharper attacking output but leaves more space behind, so their defence is nudged slightly looser to reflect a stylistic open-game matchup rather than any predicted result.
  5. 5
    Scoreline
    A Poisson model on those expected goals (with ρ) gives the score-probability matrix above; its most likely cell is 1-1 at 12%. Win / draw / loss come from summing the matrix.
  6. 6
    Confidence
    5/10 — a sharper peak and a clearer favourite raise it; large agent moves lower it (model agreement 86%).
Spain vs Belgium — predicted 1-1 · Lambda XI