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France
vs
Morocco
Quarter-finals · 7/9/2026, 8:00:00 PM
1-0
alt 0-0 · xG 1.24–0.72
4conf
actual 2-0 ✓ correct
Score-probability matrix
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
15
10
1
17
13
2
11
8
3
4
5
6
↓ France goalsMorocco goals →
Win / draw / loss
W 48%D 31%L 21%
Market
61% / 25% / 15%

France favoured (48% to win); the model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.

Confidence 4/10. Even the favoured outcome (48%) fails about 52% of the time; a single match is high variance. This one is close; treat the scoreline as indicative only.

How we got to 1-0
  1. 1
    Model fit
    Team strengths fit from 15,899 matches (Dixon-Coles, recency-weighted, low-score correction ρ=-0.044). Neutral venue — no home advantage.
  2. 2
    Team strengths (log scale, vs average)
    France: attack +1.50, defence +1.52
    Morocco: attack +1.08, defence +1.55
    Higher attack = scores more; higher defence = concedes fewer.
  3. 3
    Expected goals
    France: exp(base +0.15 + att +1.50 − opp.def +1.55) = 1.10
    Morocco: exp(base +0.15 + att +1.08 − opp.def +1.52) = 0.75
    “base” is the league scoring level the model fitted.
  4. 4
    Agent adjustments
    λ 1.10/0.75 → 1.24/0.72
    • Tactical home attack ×1.05 — Both sides are in excellent form with no availability concerns, so factors stay near baseline. France's elite defensive record (0.4 conceded) and tactical solidity in high-stakes neutral fixtures warrant a slight tightening and modest attacking edge, while Morocco's leakier defence (1.2 conceded) suggests a small vulnerability the baseline may under-weight; their counter-attacking threat keeps their attack near neutral.
    • Tactical home defence ×1.08 — Both sides are in excellent form with no availability concerns, so factors stay near baseline. France's elite defensive record (0.4 conceded) and tactical solidity in high-stakes neutral fixtures warrant a slight tightening and modest attacking edge, while Morocco's leakier defence (1.2 conceded) suggests a small vulnerability the baseline may under-weight; their counter-attacking threat keeps their attack near neutral.
    • Tactical away attack ×1.02 — Both sides are in excellent form with no availability concerns, so factors stay near baseline. France's elite defensive record (0.4 conceded) and tactical solidity in high-stakes neutral fixtures warrant a slight tightening and modest attacking edge, while Morocco's leakier defence (1.2 conceded) suggests a small vulnerability the baseline may under-weight; their counter-attacking threat keeps their attack near neutral.
    • Tactical away defence ×0.95 — Both sides are in excellent form with no availability concerns, so factors stay near baseline. France's elite defensive record (0.4 conceded) and tactical solidity in high-stakes neutral fixtures warrant a slight tightening and modest attacking edge, while Morocco's leakier defence (1.2 conceded) suggests a small vulnerability the baseline may under-weight; their counter-attacking threat keeps their attack near neutral.
    • Context away attack ×1.02 — Both sides are in strong form with full availability, so the baseline already captures their strength well. A neutral venue removes home advantage for France. Morocco's underdog role and typical high-energy, well-organized tournament tactics give a marginal attacking lift, though their slightly leakier recent defence (1.2 conceded) nudges their defensive tightness just below neutral. Overall near-neutral adjustments as the baseline sees most relevant information.
    • Context away defence ×0.98 — Both sides are in strong form with full availability, so the baseline already captures their strength well. A neutral venue removes home advantage for France. Morocco's underdog role and typical high-energy, well-organized tournament tactics give a marginal attacking lift, though their slightly leakier recent defence (1.2 conceded) nudges their defensive tightness just below neutral. Overall near-neutral adjustments as the baseline sees most relevant information.
  5. 5
    Scoreline
    A Poisson model on those expected goals (with ρ) gives the score-probability matrix above; its most likely cell is 1-0 at 17%. Win / draw / loss come from summing the matrix.
  6. 6
    Confidence
    4/10 — a sharper peak and a clearer favourite raise it; large agent moves lower it (model agreement 77%).
France vs Morocco — predicted 1-0 · Lambda XI