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Switzerland
vs
Colombia
Round of 16 · 7/7/2026, 8:00:00 PM
0-1
alt 1-1 · xG 0.82–1.26
4conf
actual 4-3 ✗ missed
Score-probability matrix
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
13
15
10
1
10
14
8
2
5
3
4
5
6
↓ Switzerland goalsColombia goals →
Win / draw / loss
W 24%D 30%L 46%
Market
27% / 31% / 43%

Colombia favoured (46% to win); the model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.

Confidence 4/10. Even the favoured outcome (46%) fails about 54% of the time; a single match is high variance. This one is close; treat the scoreline as indicative only.

How we got to 0-1
  1. 1
    Model fit
    Team strengths fit from 15,899 matches (Dixon-Coles, recency-weighted, low-score correction ρ=-0.044). Neutral venue — no home advantage.
  2. 2
    Team strengths (log scale, vs average)
    Switzerland: attack +1.28, defence +1.20
    Colombia: attack +1.35, defence +1.48
    Higher attack = scores more; higher defence = concedes fewer.
  3. 3
    Expected goals
    Switzerland: exp(base +0.15 + att +1.28 − opp.def +1.48) = 0.95
    Colombia: exp(base +0.15 + att +1.35 − opp.def +1.20) = 1.34
    “base” is the league scoring level the model fitted.
  4. 4
    Agent adjustments
    λ 0.95/1.34 → 0.82/1.26
    • Tactical home defence ×1.05 — No availability news beyond the baseline, so factors stay near neutral. Both sides show strong recent defensive discipline that the baseline may partly reflect, but Colombia's exceptional 0.2 conceded per game and Switzerland's tidy 0.8 suggest slight extra defensive tightening; a small edge to Colombia given their more parsimonious backline. Attacks left neutral as scoring form is already captured by the baseline xG.
    • Tactical away defence ×1.1 — No availability news beyond the baseline, so factors stay near neutral. Both sides show strong recent defensive discipline that the baseline may partly reflect, but Colombia's exceptional 0.2 conceded per game and Switzerland's tidy 0.8 suggest slight extra defensive tightening; a small edge to Colombia given their more parsimonious backline. Attacks left neutral as scoring form is already captured by the baseline xG.
    • Context home defence ×1.02 — Both sides are at full availability and the baseline already captures long-run strength and recent form. Only minor tweaks: both teams show strong defensive discipline in recent form (Switzerland 0.8 and Colombia 0.2 conceded per game) not fully reflected in xG, so slight defensive boosts, with Colombia's exceptional recent solidity earning a marginally larger edge. No stakes or tactical intel justifies moving attack factors.
    • Context away defence ×1.05 — Both sides are at full availability and the baseline already captures long-run strength and recent form. Only minor tweaks: both teams show strong defensive discipline in recent form (Switzerland 0.8 and Colombia 0.2 conceded per game) not fully reflected in xG, so slight defensive boosts, with Colombia's exceptional recent solidity earning a marginally larger edge. No stakes or tactical intel justifies moving attack factors.
  5. 5
    Scoreline
    A Poisson model on those expected goals (with ρ) gives the score-probability matrix above; its most likely cell is 0-1 at 15%. Win / draw / loss come from summing the matrix.
  6. 6
    Confidence
    4/10 — a sharper peak and a clearer favourite raise it; large agent moves lower it (model agreement 80%).
Switzerland vs Colombia — predicted 0-1 · Lambda XI