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Argentina
vs
Egypt
Round of 16 · 7/7/2026, 4:00:00 PM
1-0
alt 2-0 · xG 1.73–0.46
6conf
actual 3-2 ✓ correct
Score-probability matrix
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
12
1
19
9
2
17
8
3
10
4
5
6
↓ Argentina goalsEgypt goals →
Win / draw / loss
W 68%D 23%L 9%
Market
71% / 20% / 9%

Argentina favoured (68% to win); the model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.

Confidence 6/10. Even the favoured outcome (68%) fails about 32% of the time; a single match is high variance.

How we got to 1-0
  1. 1
    Model fit
    Team strengths fit from 15,899 matches (Dixon-Coles, recency-weighted, low-score correction ρ=-0.044). Neutral venue — no home advantage.
  2. 2
    Team strengths (log scale, vs average)
    Argentina: attack +1.48, defence +1.80
    Egypt: attack +0.82, defence +1.13
    Higher attack = scores more; higher defence = concedes fewer.
  3. 3
    Expected goals
    Argentina: exp(base +0.15 + att +1.48 − opp.def +1.13) = 1.65
    Egypt: exp(base +0.15 + att +0.82 − opp.def +1.80) = 0.43
    “base” is the league scoring level the model fitted.
  4. 4
    Agent adjustments
    λ 1.65/0.43 → 1.73/0.46
    • Tactical away attack ×1.05 — Baseline already captures both sides' long-run strength and strong recent form, and no availability issues are reported, so factors stay near neutral. A slight tilt favors Egypt's attacking output and a touch more defensive looseness, reflecting their tactically open, front-foot style (2.5 scored but 1.5 conceded per game) that the aggregate baseline may understate versus Argentina's more balanced profile.
    • Tactical away defence ×0.95 — Baseline already captures both sides' long-run strength and strong recent form, and no availability issues are reported, so factors stay near neutral. A slight tilt favors Egypt's attacking output and a touch more defensive looseness, reflecting their tactically open, front-foot style (2.5 scored but 1.5 conceded per game) that the aggregate baseline may understate versus Argentina's more balanced profile.
  5. 5
    Scoreline
    A Poisson model on those expected goals (with ρ) gives the score-probability matrix above; its most likely cell is 1-0 at 19%. Win / draw / loss come from summing the matrix.
  6. 6
    Confidence
    6/10 — a sharper peak and a clearer favourite raise it; large agent moves lower it (model agreement 90%).
Argentina vs Egypt — predicted 1-0 · Lambda XI