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United States
vs
Belgium
Round of 16 · 7/7/2026, 12:00:00 AM
1-1
alt 0-1 · xG 1.30–1.31
4conf
Score-probability matrix
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
8
9
6
1
9
13
8
2
6
8
5
3
4
5
6
↓ United States goalsBelgium goals →
Win / draw / loss
W 36%D 28%L 36%
Market
36% / 28% / 35%

Belgium favoured (36% to win); the model's most likely scoreline is 1-1.

Confidence 4/10. Even the favoured outcome (36%) fails about 64% of the time; a single match is high variance. This one is close; treat the scoreline as indicative only.

How we got to 1-1
  1. 1
    Model fit
    Team strengths fit from 15,899 matches (Dixon-Coles, recency-weighted, low-score correction ρ=-0.068). Neutral venue — no home advantage.
  2. 2
    Team strengths (log scale, vs average)
    United States: attack +0.81, defence +0.79
    Belgium: attack +0.88, defence +0.73
    Higher attack = scores more; higher defence = concedes fewer.
  3. 3
    Expected goals
    United States: exp(base +0.18 + att +0.81 − opp.def +0.73) = 1.30
    Belgium: exp(base +0.18 + att +0.88 − opp.def +0.79) = 1.31
    “base” is the league scoring level the model fitted.
  4. 4
    Agent adjustments
    None — baseline quant model (no agent layer applied).
  5. 5
    Scoreline
    A Poisson model on those expected goals (with ρ) gives the score-probability matrix above; its most likely cell is 1-1 at 13%. Win / draw / loss come from summing the matrix.
  6. 6
    Confidence
    4/10 — a sharper peak and a clearer favourite raise it; large agent moves lower it (model agreement 100%).
United States vs Belgium — predicted 1-1 · Lambda XI