PortugalSpain
Round of 16 · 7/6/2026, 7:00:00 PM
0-1
alt 1-1 · xG 0.92–1.42
4conf
actual 0-1 ✓ correct
Score-probability matrix
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
10
13
10
1
8
13
9
2
6
3
4
5
6
↓ Portugal goalsSpain goals →
Win / draw / loss
W 24%D 28%L 48%
Market
24% / 27% / 50%
Spain favoured (48% to win); the model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
Confidence 4/10. Even the favoured outcome (48%) fails about 52% of the time; a single match is high variance. This one is close; treat the scoreline as indicative only.
How we got to 0-1
- 1Model fitTeam strengths fit from 15,899 matches (Dixon-Coles, recency-weighted, low-score correction ρ=-0.044). Neutral venue — no home advantage.
- 2Team strengths (log scale, vs average)Portugal: attack +1.51, defence +1.47Spain: attack +1.63, defence +1.62Higher attack = scores more; higher defence = concedes fewer.
- 3Expected goalsPortugal: exp(base +0.15 + att +1.51 − opp.def +1.62) = 1.04Spain: exp(base +0.15 + att +1.63 − opp.def +1.47) = 1.36“base” is the league scoring level the model fitted.
- 4Agent adjustmentsλ 1.04/1.36 → 0.92/1.42
- Tactical home defence ×1.02 — Both sides at full availability, so factors stay near baseline. Spain's exceptional recent defensive solidity (0 conceded per game) suggests a well-drilled, cohesive press that the baseline may underweight, warranting a slight tightening and marginal attacking edge. Portugal-Spain derbies typically become cagey, cancelling-out affairs where both defences shade up slightly; Portugal earns a small defensive bump for their disciplined structure, while their attack holds at baseline against a strong opposing block.
- Tactical away attack ×1.05 — Both sides at full availability, so factors stay near baseline. Spain's exceptional recent defensive solidity (0 conceded per game) suggests a well-drilled, cohesive press that the baseline may underweight, warranting a slight tightening and marginal attacking edge. Portugal-Spain derbies typically become cagey, cancelling-out affairs where both defences shade up slightly; Portugal earns a small defensive bump for their disciplined structure, while their attack holds at baseline against a strong opposing block.
- Tactical away defence ×1.08 — Both sides at full availability, so factors stay near baseline. Spain's exceptional recent defensive solidity (0 conceded per game) suggests a well-drilled, cohesive press that the baseline may underweight, warranting a slight tightening and marginal attacking edge. Portugal-Spain derbies typically become cagey, cancelling-out affairs where both defences shade up slightly; Portugal earns a small defensive bump for their disciplined structure, while their attack holds at baseline against a strong opposing block.
- Context away attack ×1.02 — This is a high-stakes neutral-venue clash between well-matched rivals with no reported absences, so baselines already capture most of the picture. Spain's recent run shows exceptional defensive solidity (0.0 conceded) and consistent scoring, warranting a small tightening of their defence and a marginal attacking edge beyond what the baseline reflects. Portugal stay neutral given balanced form and full availability.
- Context away defence ×1.05 — This is a high-stakes neutral-venue clash between well-matched rivals with no reported absences, so baselines already capture most of the picture. Spain's recent run shows exceptional defensive solidity (0.0 conceded) and consistent scoring, warranting a small tightening of their defence and a marginal attacking edge beyond what the baseline reflects. Portugal stay neutral given balanced form and full availability.
- 5ScorelineA Poisson model on those expected goals (with ρ) gives the score-probability matrix above; its most likely cell is 0-1 at 13%. Win / draw / loss come from summing the matrix.
- 6Confidence4/10 — a sharper peak and a clearer favourite raise it; large agent moves lower it (model agreement 80%).