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Mexico
vs
England
Round of 16 · 7/6/2026, 1:00:00 AM
0-1
alt 0-0 · xG 0.63–1.33
5conf
actual 2-3 ✓ correct
Score-probability matrix
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
15
18
13
6
1
8
12
8
2
3
4
5
6
↓ Mexico goalsEngland goals →
Win / draw / loss
W 17%D 30%L 53%
Market
30% / 30% / 40%

England favoured (53% to win); the model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.

Confidence 5/10. Even the favoured outcome (53%) fails about 47% of the time; a single match is high variance.

How we got to 0-1
  1. 1
    Model fit
    Team strengths fit from 15,899 matches (Dixon-Coles, recency-weighted, low-score correction ρ=-0.044). Neutral venue — no home advantage.
  2. 2
    Team strengths (log scale, vs average)
    Mexico: attack +1.01, defence +1.24
    England: attack +1.43, defence +1.62
    Higher attack = scores more; higher defence = concedes fewer.
  3. 3
    Expected goals
    Mexico: exp(base +0.15 + att +1.01 − opp.def +1.62) = 0.63
    England: exp(base +0.15 + att +1.43 − opp.def +1.24) = 1.40
    “base” is the league scoring level the model fitted.
  4. 4
    Agent adjustments
    λ 0.63/1.40 → 0.63/1.33
    • Tactical home defence ×1.05 — Both squads fully available and baseline already reflects strong recent form. Mexico's clean-sheet run (0.0 conceded across four wins) suggests a defensive cohesion the baseline may slightly underweight, warranting a modest tightening; no other tactical or stakes information justifies moving England's factors or the attacking multipliers from neutral.
  5. 5
    Scoreline
    A Poisson model on those expected goals (with ρ) gives the score-probability matrix above; its most likely cell is 0-1 at 18%. Win / draw / loss come from summing the matrix.
  6. 6
    Confidence
    5/10 — a sharper peak and a clearer favourite raise it; large agent moves lower it (model agreement 95%).
Mexico vs England — predicted 0-1 · Lambda XI