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Mexico
vs
England
Round of 16 · 7/6/2026, 12:00:00 AM
0-0
alt 1-1 · xG 0.93–0.97
4conf
Score-probability matrix
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
16
14
7
1
13
14
7
2
6
6
3
4
5
6
↓ Mexico goalsEngland goals →
Win / draw / loss
W 32%D 34%L 34%
Market
31% / 30% / 39%value +7% on draw

England favoured (34% to win); the model's most likely scoreline is 0-0.

Confidence 4/10. Even the favoured outcome (34%) fails about 66% of the time; a single match is high variance. This one is close; treat the scoreline as indicative only.

How we got to 0-0
  1. 1
    Model fit
    Team strengths fit from 15,899 matches (Dixon-Coles, recency-weighted, low-score correction ρ=-0.068). Neutral venue — no home advantage.
  2. 2
    Team strengths (log scale, vs average)
    Mexico: attack +0.80, defence +0.99
    England: attack +0.79, defence +1.05
    Higher attack = scores more; higher defence = concedes fewer.
  3. 3
    Expected goals
    Mexico: exp(base +0.18 + att +0.80 − opp.def +1.05) = 0.93
    England: exp(base +0.18 + att +0.79 − opp.def +0.99) = 0.99
    “base” is the league scoring level the model fitted.
  4. 4
    Agent adjustments
    λ 0.93/0.99 → 0.93/0.97
    • Tactical home defence ×1.02 — Both sides are at full strength with no availability concerns, so the baseline already captures their strength and form. Mexico's four straight clean sheets suggest slightly sharper defensive organization than the model may reflect, warranting a minor tightening; otherwise no material stylistic or contextual edge justifies moving factors from neutral at a neutral venue.
  5. 5
    Scoreline
    A Poisson model on those expected goals (with ρ) gives the score-probability matrix above; its most likely cell is 0-0 at 16%. Win / draw / loss come from summing the matrix.
  6. 6
    Confidence
    4/10 — a sharper peak and a clearer favourite raise it; large agent moves lower it (model agreement 98%).
Mexico vs England — predicted 0-0 · Lambda XI