← all fixtures
Brazil
vs
Norway
Round of 16 · 7/5/2026, 8:00:00 PM
2-0
alt 2-1 · xG 2.36–0.90
5conf
actual 1-2 ✗ missed
Score-probability matrix
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
1
9
8
2
11
10
3
8
8
4
5
5
6
↓ Brazil goalsNorway goals →
Win / draw / loss
W 70%D 18%L 12%
Market
54% / 26% / 21%

Brazil favoured (70% to win); the model's most likely scoreline is 2-0.

Confidence 5/10. Even the favoured outcome (70%) fails about 30% of the time; a single match is high variance.

How we got to 2-0
  1. 1
    Model fit
    Team strengths fit from 15,899 matches (Dixon-Coles, recency-weighted, low-score correction ρ=-0.044). Neutral venue — no home advantage.
  2. 2
    Team strengths (log scale, vs average)
    Brazil: attack +1.54, defence +1.62
    Norway: attack +1.31, defence +1.04
    Higher attack = scores more; higher defence = concedes fewer.
  3. 3
    Expected goals
    Brazil: exp(base +0.15 + att +1.54 − opp.def +1.04) = 1.91
    Norway: exp(base +0.15 + att +1.31 − opp.def +1.62) = 0.85
    “base” is the league scoring level the model fitted.
  4. 4
    Agent adjustments
    λ 1.91/0.85 → 2.36/0.90
    • Tactical home attack ×1.05 — Norway's high defensive line and attacking intent (2.5 scored but 2.0 conceded) creates space Brazil's technical forwards can exploit, so I nudge Brazil's attack and defence up slightly and boost Norway's attack but loosen their defence; both squads fully available so movements stay modest around the baseline.
    • Tactical home defence ×1.05 — Norway's high defensive line and attacking intent (2.5 scored but 2.0 conceded) creates space Brazil's technical forwards can exploit, so I nudge Brazil's attack and defence up slightly and boost Norway's attack but loosen their defence; both squads fully available so movements stay modest around the baseline.
    • Tactical away attack ×1.1 — Norway's high defensive line and attacking intent (2.5 scored but 2.0 conceded) creates space Brazil's technical forwards can exploit, so I nudge Brazil's attack and defence up slightly and boost Norway's attack but loosen their defence; both squads fully available so movements stay modest around the baseline.
    • Tactical away defence ×0.85 — Norway's high defensive line and attacking intent (2.5 scored but 2.0 conceded) creates space Brazil's technical forwards can exploit, so I nudge Brazil's attack and defence up slightly and boost Norway's attack but loosen their defence; both squads fully available so movements stay modest around the baseline.
  5. 5
    Scoreline
    A Poisson model on those expected goals (with ρ) gives the score-probability matrix above; its most likely cell is 2-0 at 11%. Win / draw / loss come from summing the matrix.
  6. 6
    Confidence
    5/10 — a sharper peak and a clearer favourite raise it; large agent moves lower it (model agreement 66%).
Brazil vs Norway — predicted 2-0 · Lambda XI