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Brazil
vs
Norway
Round of 16 · 7/5/2026, 8:00:00 PM
2-0
alt 3-0 · xG 2.82–0.78
6conf
Score-probability matrix
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
1
7
6
2
11
8
3
10
8
4
7
6
5
6
↓ Brazil goalsNorway goals →
Win / draw / loss
W 79%D 14%L 7%
Market
51% / 26% / 23%value +48% on home

Brazil favoured (79% to win); the model's most likely scoreline is 2-0.

Confidence 6/10. Even the favoured outcome (79%) fails about 21% of the time; a single match is high variance.

How we got to 2-0
  1. 1
    Model fit
    Team strengths fit from 15,899 matches (Dixon-Coles, recency-weighted, low-score correction ρ=-0.068). Neutral venue — no home advantage.
  2. 2
    Team strengths (log scale, vs average)
    Brazil: attack +1.12, defence +1.15
    Norway: attack +0.64, defence +0.41
    Higher attack = scores more; higher defence = concedes fewer.
  3. 3
    Expected goals
    Brazil: exp(base +0.18 + att +1.12 − opp.def +0.41) = 2.42
    Norway: exp(base +0.18 + att +0.64 − opp.def +1.15) = 0.72
    “base” is the league scoring level the model fitted.
  4. 4
    Agent adjustments
    λ 2.42/0.72 → 2.82/0.78
    • Tactical home attack ×1.05 — Norway's high-scoring but leaky form suggests an aggressive, front-foot approach that should generate chances (away attack up) but leaves space in transition against Brazil's pace, tightening Norway's defensive exposure (away defence down); Brazil's fluid attacking style gets a slight edge exploiting that openness, while both defences otherwise track baseline given full availability.
    • Tactical away attack ×1.08 — Norway's high-scoring but leaky form suggests an aggressive, front-foot approach that should generate chances (away attack up) but leaves space in transition against Brazil's pace, tightening Norway's defensive exposure (away defence down); Brazil's fluid attacking style gets a slight edge exploiting that openness, while both defences otherwise track baseline given full availability.
    • Tactical away defence ×0.9 — Norway's high-scoring but leaky form suggests an aggressive, front-foot approach that should generate chances (away attack up) but leaves space in transition against Brazil's pace, tightening Norway's defensive exposure (away defence down); Brazil's fluid attacking style gets a slight edge exploiting that openness, while both defences otherwise track baseline given full availability.
  5. 5
    Scoreline
    A Poisson model on those expected goals (with ρ) gives the score-probability matrix above; its most likely cell is 2-0 at 11%. Win / draw / loss come from summing the matrix.
  6. 6
    Confidence
    6/10 — a sharper peak and a clearer favourite raise it; large agent moves lower it (model agreement 78%).
Brazil vs Norway — predicted 2-0 · Lambda XI