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Canada
vs
Morocco
Round of 16 · 7/4/2026, 5:00:00 PM
0-0
alt 1-1 · xG 0.92–0.96
4conf
Score-probability matrix
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
16
14
7
1
13
14
6
2
6
6
3
4
5
6
↓ Canada goalsMorocco goals →
Win / draw / loss
W 32%D 34%L 34%
Market
19% / 28% / 54%value +64% on home

Morocco favoured (34% to win); the model's most likely scoreline is 0-0.

Confidence 4/10. Even the favoured outcome (34%) fails about 66% of the time; a single match is high variance. This one is close; treat the scoreline as indicative only.

How we got to 0-0
  1. 1
    Model fit
    Team strengths fit from 15,899 matches (Dixon-Coles, recency-weighted, low-score correction ρ=-0.068). Neutral venue — no home advantage.
  2. 2
    Team strengths (log scale, vs average)
    Canada: attack +0.76, defence +0.83
    Morocco: attack +0.65, defence +1.16
    Higher attack = scores more; higher defence = concedes fewer.
  3. 3
    Expected goals
    Canada: exp(base +0.18 + att +0.76 − opp.def +1.16) = 0.81
    Morocco: exp(base +0.18 + att +0.65 − opp.def +0.83) = 1.01
    “base” is the league scoring level the model fitted.
  4. 4
    Agent adjustments
    λ 0.81/1.01 → 0.92/0.96
    • Tactical home attack ×1.05 — Canada's recent defensive solidity (0.8 conceded) suggests a well-drilled, compact block the baseline may underrate, so slight boosts to their attack and defence. Morocco's strong scoring form is offset by leaking 1.5 per game, hinting at an open, high-line approach that could be exploited on the counter, so their defence is nudged down. No availability issues on either side to adjust further.
    • Tactical home defence ×1.05 — Canada's recent defensive solidity (0.8 conceded) suggests a well-drilled, compact block the baseline may underrate, so slight boosts to their attack and defence. Morocco's strong scoring form is offset by leaking 1.5 per game, hinting at an open, high-line approach that could be exploited on the counter, so their defence is nudged down. No availability issues on either side to adjust further.
    • Tactical away defence ×0.92 — Canada's recent defensive solidity (0.8 conceded) suggests a well-drilled, compact block the baseline may underrate, so slight boosts to their attack and defence. Morocco's strong scoring form is offset by leaking 1.5 per game, hinting at an open, high-line approach that could be exploited on the counter, so their defence is nudged down. No availability issues on either side to adjust further.
  5. 5
    Scoreline
    A Poisson model on those expected goals (with ρ) gives the score-probability matrix above; its most likely cell is 0-0 at 16%. Win / draw / loss come from summing the matrix.
  6. 6
    Confidence
    4/10 — a sharper peak and a clearer favourite raise it; large agent moves lower it (model agreement 83%).
Canada vs Morocco — predicted 0-0 · Lambda XI