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Paraguay
vs
France
Round of 16 · 7/4/2026, 9:00:00 PM
0-1
alt 0-0 · xG 0.65–1.44
5conf
Score-probability matrix
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
13
17
13
6
1
7
12
8
2
3
4
5
6
↓ Paraguay goalsFrance goals →
Win / draw / loss
W 16%D 29%L 55%
Market
6% / 14% / 81%

France favoured (55% to win); the model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.

Confidence 5/10. Even the favoured outcome (55%) fails about 45% of the time; a single match is high variance.

How we got to 0-1
  1. 1
    Model fit
    Team strengths fit from 15,899 matches (Dixon-Coles, recency-weighted, low-score correction ρ=-0.068). Neutral venue — no home advantage.
  2. 2
    Team strengths (log scale, vs average)
    Paraguay: attack +0.46, defence +0.84
    France: attack +0.87, defence +0.93
    Higher attack = scores more; higher defence = concedes fewer.
  3. 3
    Expected goals
    Paraguay: exp(base +0.18 + att +0.46 − opp.def +0.93) = 0.75
    France: exp(base +0.18 + att +0.87 − opp.def +0.84) = 1.24
    “base” is the league scoring level the model fitted.
  4. 4
    Agent adjustments
    λ 0.75/1.24 → 0.65/1.44
    • Tactical home defence ×0.95 — Baseline already captures long-run strength and recent form, leaving little unseen info to adjust for. However, France's exceptional current momentum (WWWW, 3.2 scored, 0.5 conceded) suggests a cohesive, in-form unit whose attacking sharpness and defensive solidity may slightly exceed baseline expectations. Paraguay's inconsistent form (WDWL, leaking 2.0/game) hints at defensive fragility beyond the baseline, so their defence is nudged down; their attack stays neutral. No availability or stakes information warrants larger moves.
    • Tactical away attack ×1.1 — Baseline already captures long-run strength and recent form, leaving little unseen info to adjust for. However, France's exceptional current momentum (WWWW, 3.2 scored, 0.5 conceded) suggests a cohesive, in-form unit whose attacking sharpness and defensive solidity may slightly exceed baseline expectations. Paraguay's inconsistent form (WDWL, leaking 2.0/game) hints at defensive fragility beyond the baseline, so their defence is nudged down; their attack stays neutral. No availability or stakes information warrants larger moves.
    • Tactical away defence ×1.15 — Baseline already captures long-run strength and recent form, leaving little unseen info to adjust for. However, France's exceptional current momentum (WWWW, 3.2 scored, 0.5 conceded) suggests a cohesive, in-form unit whose attacking sharpness and defensive solidity may slightly exceed baseline expectations. Paraguay's inconsistent form (WDWL, leaking 2.0/game) hints at defensive fragility beyond the baseline, so their defence is nudged down; their attack stays neutral. No availability or stakes information warrants larger moves.
  5. 5
    Scoreline
    A Poisson model on those expected goals (with ρ) gives the score-probability matrix above; its most likely cell is 0-1 at 17%. Win / draw / loss come from summing the matrix.
  6. 6
    Confidence
    5/10 — a sharper peak and a clearer favourite raise it; large agent moves lower it (model agreement 73%).
Paraguay vs France — predicted 0-1 · Lambda XI